The Sure Thing (1985)
Moderate
6.2 ★Why we're confident in this score
307 ratings. The score is reasonably stable but could shift up to 0.13 as more ratings come in.
The Math
Prior (global mean)m = 5.985
Prior weightC = 500
Observed ratingsn = 307
Observed averageR = 6.47
Posterior mean (Bayesian score)6.169
95% confidence interval±0.1272
Formula: posterior_mean = (n / (n + C)) × R + (C / (n + C)) × m. The confidence interval narrows as more ratings come in. Films with few ratings are pulled toward the global mean.
This film vs. typical moderate films
| Metric | This film | Median (moderate) |
|---|---|---|
| Rating count | 307 | 512 |
| 95% CI | ±0.1270 | ±0.1116 |
| Films in tier | 13,151 | |
Last computed: September 17, 2026 at 04:10 AM